AUTOCRAT REPELLENT

10 Takeaways from Peter Magyar’s Takedown of Viktor Orbán that Even I, a Weak Hungarian Speaker Paying Patchy Attention from Afar, Could See

Orbán and Magyar on the campaign trail

You say you want a revolution. The revolutionary’s daydream, the image in the imagination, is of the people rising up, taking to the streets, and deposing a despot. But this kind of revolution, romantic as it sounds, has mostly brought disaster. The French Revolution was followed by war and the Reign of Terror, the Russian Revolution brought Lenin, Stalin and the murder of millions, the Spanish Revolution yielded the brutal dictator Franco and bloody civil war, the list goes on. It works for a brief moment in that the autocrat is ousted. But it leaves a power vacuum that the revolutionaries, loosely organized, largely institutionless, and eschewing strong leadership, are ill-equipped to handle.^[1]

No, a revolution is best brought about by lawful means, galvanizing would-be revolutionaries, expanding their number to a majority and more, and guiding them via the nation’s traditions and institutions. This is what just happened in Hungary. The nation dethroned an autocrat who had ruled for 16 years. During that time, he packed the courts, bought 80% of the private media, gerrymandered the legislature, amended the constitution, looted the treasury, took graft from dictators abroad to do their bidding, and intimidated any opposition.

This consolidation of power looked like an impregnable fortress around the Hungarian state as little as a year ago. The revolutionary, Peter Magyar, not only breached it, he razed it, cutting its 70% majority down to a 25% minority. The autocrat, Viktor Orbán, is fleeing the country.

How? How did he do this? It is the case to be studied by every opponent of autocracy in the world. Here are some of the keys, as I see them.

1. The revolutionary is an insider. He served the ruling regime loyally for years until it went too far and he could no longer support it or remain silent. He knows a lot about how the autocrat machine works, its vulnerabilities, and where the bodies are buried. He can speak with authority and authenticity about these topics. The move he made is the same move he is asking the voter to make.

2. The revolutionary is a hottie. A leader’s looks should not matter. And there is a group of voters to whom it does, indeed, not matter. There is another group of voters who say it does not matter, but to whom, subconsciously or otherwise, it does matter. And there is a third group of voters who are not shy about telling you they prefer a hottie in office. The revolution needs every one of these voters.

3. The revolutionary is supremely confident. He speaks not as a person whose mind boggles at the unthinkable transgressions of the autocrat. Rather, he expresses himself as the adult in the room who calls out the crimes and will mete out the punishment. He is unafraid for himself, appearing in public many times every day, and his campaign tagline is “Ne Féljetek,” “Don’t Be Afraid.” Its brilliance is in simultaneously casting the regime as thugs and emboldening the listeners to be revolutionaries.

4. The revolutionary is a centrist, even center right. He is not asking the voters to support a 180 slingshot clear across the political spectrum. The majority of voters had been for the rightist regime in the past 4 elections. That majority of voters will not have an appetite for a left leaning slate. Align the revolution with the nation’s majority and assure them they need only take small, measured steps to oust the autocrat.

5. The revolutionary is 45. Youthful enough to kill it on social media and connect with the young voters, he addresses them directly, every day, in their own idiom without irony or awkwardness. Old enough to project maturity in public speaking, live and on traditional media, which he does every day.

6. The revolutionary is analog. As mentioned, a fresh and appealing ubiquity in the parallel universe we call “digital” is indispensable. But the revolutionary’s secret sauce is the return to the tradition of town square gatherings. He draws crowds that come for the entertainment and stay for the speech, the meet-and-greet photo ops, and the informal after-party. Several stops each weekend day, some evenings, and all holidays, for two years. No village left unvisited.

7. The revolutionary is impeccably organized. Town square events ran smoothly. Statements in response to the issues of the day were artfully written, on-message smart, timely issued, and with excellent English language versions. Local and down-ballot candidates were high quality and well-coordinated. Sources within the ruling party were worked to stay ahead of its tactics, calling them out in real time, or ahead of time. A clear and simple policy platform paper was published, widely circulated, and the lack of any equivalent from the ruling party repeatedly impugned.

8. The revolutionary avoids left-right divisive topics. On culture wars, wokeness, LGBTQ+ rights, and the like, he issues general statements of inclusion and critiques the ruling party’s extreme rhetoric. On military aid to Ukraine, he makes clear that Hungary stands with Europe and against Russia generally, without committing to any specific Ukraine policy. These issues are kryptonite to a campaign that needs a decisive landslide.

9. The revolutionary is broadly supported by the left. An electorate wishing to dethrone an entrenched autocrat who has stacked the deck must value deposing a dictator over demanding the ideal candidate. The American left’s mutiny from, and cruelty to, Joe Biden contributed to bringing about Trump’s second term.

10. The revolutionary offers leadership not just resistance. Clarity and simplicity in what the candidate stand for, not just against, is delivered through every communications outlet with consistency and seriousness of purpose.

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^[1] If you’re thinking of countering with the American Revolution, it’s not really comparable. It was much closer to a case of colonists throwing off the faraway imperial power, not a change in government of the home nation itself.